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West Slopes Central

Backcountry Avalanche Forecast

This is an archived product. View the most recent forecast.

Author: Irene Henninger

Issued: Monday, March 2, 2026 at 6:02 PM PST

Expires: Tuesday, March 3, 2026 at 6:00 PM PST

The Bottom Line

Precipitation will increase through the day, bringing a rise in avalanche danger. Newly formed wind drifts at higher elevations may become sensitive this afternoon, so avoid steep slopes with six inches or more of recently drifted snow. Conditions remain variable across the zone, and while large avalanches are becoming less likely, the consequences could be severe—consider avoiding steep, large start zones near ridgelines in alpine terrain. 

Avalanche Danger

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Upper Elevations
7500-5500ft
3 - ConsiderableConsiderable
Middle Elevations
5500-4500ft
2 - ModerateModerate
Lower Elevations
4500-2500ft
1 - LowLow

Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Upper Elevations
7500-5500ft
3 - ConsiderableConsiderable
Middle Elevations
5500-4500ft
3 - ConsiderableConsiderable
Lower Elevations
4500-2500ft
2 - ModerateModerate
Elevation Band Descriptions
Avalanche Danger ScaleLearn moreGeneral Info1 - Low2 - Mod3 - Cons4 - High5 - Extr
Low
1 - Low
Moderate
2 - Moderate
Considerable
3 - Considerable
High
4 - High
Extreme
5 - Extreme
Travel AdviceGenerally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of AvalanchesNatural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and DistributionSmall avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problems (3)

Problem #1: Wind Slab

Problem Type
Wind Slab
Aspect/Elevation
NNEESESSWWNW
Likelihood
CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossibleUnlikely
Size
Historic (D4-5)Very Large (D3)Large (D2)Small (D1)

Example photo: a wind slab cracking on a small test slope. If the feature were steeper, an avalanche might result. 

As new snow accumulates through the day, the likelihood of triggering avalanches in freshly wind-drifted snow will increase. Snowlines will gradually fall, but this problem will mainly affect upper elevations, possibly expanding into mid elevations later.

Look for smooth, rounded drifts or firm, textured snow on the leeward sides of ridges, in gullies, and around terrain features. Avoid steep slopes where these deposits are present, especially if you notice cracking or recent small avalanches. Even small slides could have serious consequences in steep or confined terrain—and on large, smooth slopes, they may step down into a deeper, more dangerous avalanche.

Problem #2: Persistent Slab

Problem Type
Persistent Slab
Aspect/Elevation
NNEESESSWWNW
Likelihood
CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossibleUnlikely
Size
Historic (D4-5)Very Large (D3)Large (D2)Small (D1)

(3/1/2026)

A large, rider-triggered avalanche in the neighboring West North zone. Considering how far this avalanche propagated, it likely failed on a persistent weak layer. 

With limited observations, it's hard to tell whether our persistent slab concerns exist in the zone, although given the layout in other nearby zones, we suspect it exists here, at least patchily, as well. We expect some areas might have little to no avalanche activity, while others could produce natural, remote, and human-triggered avalanches. In neighboring zones, many recent avalanches are failing near a thin mid-February crust. Weakness depths could be 1-3ft, depending on where you are in the zone.  Most larger avalanches occurred on northerly aspects in neighboring zones.

Classic warning signs like collapses, whumphing, and shooting cracks are strong indicators of instability, though deeper weak layers may produce few clues. Uncertainty increases in less-traveled terrain, so consider checking for weak snow above crusts before committing to large slopes. Choosing lower-angle, less wind-loaded terrain remains the simplest way to reduce risk.

Problem #3: Wet Loose

Problem Type
Wet Loose
Aspect/Elevation
NNEESESSWWNW
Likelihood
CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossibleUnlikely
Size
Historic (D4-5)Very Large (D3)Large (D2)Small (D1)

Example photo: Rollerballs and small wet loose avalanches like what you may see running naturally or trigger on Tuesday. 

Photo: Dallas Glass

Precipitation will begin with a relatively high snowline, bringing rain to most mid and lower elevations through the day. South-facing slopes have already been warm and wet, so additional avalanche activity there is unlikely. Shadier slopes, however, may be getting wet for the first time, where wet loose avalanches could occur.

Many exposed areas of dry snow have firm, wind-affected surfaces that are less likely to produce wet avalanches. But in previously sheltered terrain still holding soft, low-density snow, rain may quickly create wet, sticky surface snow capable of sliding—starting as rollerballs and possibly small wet loose avalanches. If you see signs of wet activity, avoid similar steep slopes nearby.

Forecast Discussion

Forecasts call for almost half an inch of water on Tuesday, mainly in the afternoon, and then more precipitation will continue through Tuesday night. 

A recent observation from Hinman highlights continued avalanche activity in the West Central zone. Observations from neighboring zones continue to show a weak and inconsistent snowpack. Buried surface hoar and crust/facet layers from early to mid-February have been found across the region, though test results vary. Some areas have produced recent avalanches on these layers while others remain quiet, so reviewing forecasts from nearby zones can help with trip planning.

A lack of recent avalanche activity doesn’t mean the problem is gone. Ongoing avalanches in parts of the region—and recent warming—suggest instability can still develop where these weak layers exist. The overall picture is variable and unpredictable: slopes that seem stable may still harbor deeper weaknesses. Careful terrain selection remains the most reliable way to manage risk, as large avalanches are still possible in isolated areas.

This information is provided by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and describes general backcountry avalanche hazard and conditions. It does not apply to ski areas and highways where avalanche mitigation is conducted.