East Slopes South
Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
Author: Payton Schiff
Issued: Thursday, April 16, 2026 at 6:30 PM PDT
Expires: Friday, April 17, 2026 at 6:30 PM PDT
The Bottom Line
We have seen dynamic weather throughout this week, as is typical for this late in the Spring, creating overlapping avalanche problems in a wide variety of terrain. As the day warms up on Friday, anticipate increasing wet snow instability as well as lingering slabs of wind-drifted snow in exposed terrain. Have a plan that allows you to easily move to lower-angle or more shaded terrain if you don’t like what you see. Lower elevations lack sufficient snow coverage for avalanche hazard to exist.
Avalanche Danger
Friday, April 17, 2026
7500-6000ft2 - Moderate
6000-5000ft2 - Moderate
5000-3000ft0 - No Rating
Saturday, April 18, 2026
7500-6000ft2 - Moderate
6000-5000ft2 - Moderate
5000-3000ft0 - No Rating
Avalanche Danger ScaleLearn moreGeneral InfoGeneral Information1 - LowLow2 - ModModerate3 - ConsConsiderable4 - HighHigh5 - ExtrExtreme
1 - Low | 2 - Moderate | 3 - Considerable | 4 - High | 5 - Extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
| Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
| Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Avalanche Problems (2)
Problem #1: Wet Loose
Problem Type
Wet LooseAspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size
(4/15/2026)
A recent intentionally triggered wind slab that entrained additional wet loose snow on its way.
Photo: Payton Schiff
The likelihood of this problem increases as the warm, sunny day progresses. Surface crusts formed overnight will break down most rapidly on slopes exposed to direct sunshine. Watch for surfaces that feel increasingly dense and sticky. Chunks of snow falling from terrain features or rollerballs tumbling down from your equipment are a sure sign of increasing instability as well. These avalanches should be limited in size, but they could run far on an underlying crust. You can reduce your risk by traveling earlier in the day or heading to shadier slopes. Be sure you have the option to travel on more stable slopes later in the day as you're making your way back to the trailhead.
Problem #2: Wind Slab
Problem Type
Wind SlabAspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size

(4/15/2026) A recent small (D1.5) skier triggered avalanche on an east aspect at 6200 ft. This avalanche failed on a midstorm layer. Average crown depth was 6-8" and the estimated depth is 200 ft. The slide ran full path. Video: Payton Schiff
The likelihood of triggering a wind slab avalanche is trending towards unlikely, but we're not out of the weeds yet. Wind slabs were reactive in nearby zones as recently as Wednesday, and additional snow and wind blew through on Thursday. Slabs will be thicker and more reactive as you gain elevation and enter into alpine terrain or as you approach the Cascade Crest, which has seen higher accumulations. They could fail either on a mid-storm layer or on a crust buried 1-2 feet below. If triggered, they could entrain wet loose snow on their way down and grow bigger than anticipated.
Wind slabs typically form just below exposed ridgelines and within gully walls (cross-loading). Use visual clues to determine where slabs may still lurk downslope, such as textured/uneven surfaces and recently formed drifts/cornices. It's unlikely you'll get clear signs of instability, such as shooting cracks, blowing snow, and recent slab avalanches, at this point. You can reduce your risk by choosing smaller slopes with less exposed hazards below, or avoid this problem entirely by steering around exposed, wind-affected slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Give overhanging masses of snow a wider berth, both from above and below.
Forecast Discussion
Earlier in the week, the western parts of East South picked up 9-12 inches of new snow according to telemetry data, accompanied by strong wind from the west. Areas to the east were largely rain-shadowed throughout the week, minimizing precipitation and subsequent avalanche hazard. An NWAC forecaster traveling in East Central on Wednesday triggered several small wind slab avalanches that failed on mid-storm interfaces and one that notably broke on the 4/14 crust about 12 inches deep. They also observed natural wind slab avalanches triggered by cornice fall. All triggered and natural avalanches were on E aspects between 6-6500f ft. They also noted blowing snow and sunbreaks that would stiffen the surface snow on sunny slopes. We suspect similar conditions existed in East South.
The recent snow has seen increasing sunshine and warmth with each day, including Friday. This "slow bake" of the snowpack leaves a lot of questions in its wake regarding instability, but you don't need to get overcooked with details. Whatever outing you have planned for Friday, be sure to have an exit strategy that keeps you out of avalanche terrain where warmed, weakened snow may fall. This includes terrain where wind-affected snow influenced by warming can fail. Don't get yourself backed into a corner by having to descend a hot, south facing slope at 4:00 in the afternoon, for example. There are plenty of exposed hazards in the terrain right now, thanks to our meager winter, so consider the consequences of getting caught up in even a small avalanche.
The prolonged warm spell in March decimated the already struggling East South snowpack. Below 5,000 ft, snow coverage is too limited for avalanche danger at this time—so we’re issuing a No Rating for lower elevations. You can still find rideable snow at middle and upper elevations.
This information is provided by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and describes general backcountry avalanche hazard and conditions.
It does not apply to ski areas and highways where avalanche mitigation is conducted.

